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How data helps explain economic relationships, and why correlation alone can’t tell us what causes what.

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From Econometrics: Why More Police Can Mean More Crime

A regression has an R-squared of 0.9. What does this tell you?

  1. The model fits 90% of y's variation
  2. Each coefficient is 90% accurate
  3. The causal effect is certain at 90%
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Answer: The model fits 90% of y's variation

R-squared measures the share of the outcome's variation captured by the fitted model; it says nothing about causation.

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